Will War Cancel Trump's Triumphs?

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Politically, however, the year brought bad news, with portents of worse to come. In November, the Republican Party was thrashed in Virginia, losing all state offices, and then lost a Senate seat in Alabama. Given polls showing Trump under water and the GOP running 10 points behind the Democratic Party in favorability, there is a possibility the GOP could lose the House in 2018. And though Democrats have three times as many seats at risk in 2018, the GOP losing the Senate is not beyond the realm of possibility. Should that happen, the conservative dream of a recapture of the U.S. Supreme Court could swiftly vanish. Recall: Democratic Senates turned down two Nixon nominees and Reagan’s nomination of Robert Bork, forcing both presidents to name justices who evolved into moderates and liberals on the high court. But it is in the realm of foreign policy where the real perils seem to lie. President Trump has been persuaded by his national security team to send Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, for use against the tanks and armor of pro-Russian rebels in Donetsk and Luhansk. Should Petro Poroshenko’s Kiev regime reignite the war in his breakaway provinces bordering Russia, Vladimir Putin is less likely to let him crush the rebels than to intervene with superior forces and rout the Ukrainian army. Trump’s choice then? Accept defeat and humiliation for our “ally” — or escalate and widen the conflict with Russia. Putin’s interest in the Donbass, a part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union for centuries, is obvious. What, exactly, is ours — to justify a showdown with Moscow? In this city there is also a powerful propaganda push to have this country tear up the nuclear deal John Kerry negotiated with Iran, and confront the Iranians in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and the Persian Gulf. But how much backing would Trump have for another U.S. war in that blood-soaked region, after Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria? Who would stand with us, and for how long? When Trump declared Jerusalem to be the capital of Israel and pledged to move our embassy there, we had to veto a unanimous U.N. Security Council resolution condemning us. Then the General Assembly denounced the U.S. in a resolution supported by all our key NATO allies, Russia and China, and every Arab and Muslim nation. A day later, Trump complained on Twitter that we have “foolishly spent $7 trillion in the Middle East.” What then would justify a new $1 or $2 trillion war with the largest nation on the Persian Gulf, which could send oil to $200 a barrel and sink the global economy? Cui bono? For whose benefit all these wars? The Korean War finished Truman. Vietnam finished LBJ. Reagan said putting Marines into Lebanon was his worst mistake. Iraq cost Bush II both houses of Congress and his party the presidency in 2008. Should Trump become a war president, he’ll likely become a one-term president.

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